ON THE STARBOARD SIDE

TAKING A LOOK AT QUANTUM

There’s very little in this market we’re interested in positioning SWING L. $AAPL might be attractive under 383 and we still like SWING L: $INVN but only in small 2.25% AUM size ahead of the May 2 EPS. A new name we have interest in, however, is SWING L: $QTM

CHART CHECK

Nothing special here, this is a just a cheap name that will likely hold $1 (to maintain it’s listing requirement), offering an “easy to see” multi-month channel 1.20 – 1.45 following the late October 2012 collapse. We want to participate below 1.25 & have no problem scaling up to a 10% AUM size down to the 52 week low of $1. Yes, that’s scaling a name prospectively DOWN 20% from “starter entry,” however, when one targets realistic returns of 100%+, the risk : reward ratio (R:R) of -1 : +5 doesn’t appear quite as “bad.”

FUZZY FUNDAMENTALS

Make no mistake, we’re not buying this thing because the fundamentals are stellar; this is no barn burner on FA. The Company expects to lose -$0.05 this year, however, forecasts FY14 will show a return to profitability, +$0.02, albeit an estimated figure that’s been cut in half over the past 90 days.

Earnings History Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12
EPS Est 0.02 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
EPS Actual 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 0.02
Difference -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02
Surprise % -100.00% 0.00% 0.00% N/A
EPS Trends Current Qtr.
Mar 13
Next Qtr.
Jun 13
Current Year
Mar 13
Next Year
Mar 14
Current Estimate -0.01 -0.01 -0.05 0.02
7 Days Ago -0.01 -0.01 -0.05 0.02
30 Days Ago -0.01 -0.01 -0.05 0.03
60 Days Ago -0.01 -0.01 -0.05 0.02
90 Days Ago 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.04

INSIDER ACTION

Smarter, larger & able to do far deeper due diligence than we can, Starboard Value, LP holds a 10%+ position & has made recent buys between 1.22-1.25. The name offers ample liquidity w/ over 1.5MM shares a day trading and wicked to a 52 week low of $1.00. Do bear in mind an EPS report is due from $QTM on May 9th. Nevertheless, we’ll start doing some INSIDER PIGGYBACK BUYING, positioning with just a 2% holding ahead of the EPS report, and gauge price action following the report for any ADDS. Ultimately, regardless as to whether we’re able to take down “full size” or not, the expectation & target for this name is 100%+ on a SWING position, which warrants a time horizon of 9 to 12 months.

**Disclaimer: We are working 2% AUM sized scales L: $QTM orders between 1.19 (heavier) & 1.25 (lighter), target basis 1.20.

Insider Relationship Date Transaction Cost #Shares Value ($) # Shares
Starboard Value LP 10% Owner Apr 04 Buy 1.23 250,000 308,050 2,675,000
Starboard Value LP 10% Owner Apr 03 Buy 1.23 300,000 369,660 2,425,000
Starboard Value LP 10% Owner Apr 02 Buy 1.25 625,000 779,213 2,125,000
Starboard Value LP 10% Owner Apr 01 Buy 1.25 500,000 625,000 1,500,000
Starboard Value LP 10% Owner Mar 13 Buy 1.22 1,000,000 1,220,000 1,000,000
Posted in $AAPL, $INVN, $QTM | Leave a comment

TRACKING INVENSENSE’S MOTION

SOMETHING FUNNY HAPPENED ON HUMP DAY

Since our ejection from StockTwits last June, it’s rare that we see stream posts from Venture Capitalist & StockTwits co-founder of Howard Lindzon. Howard’s got some great insight on MACRO trends he’s seeing in the VC world – as it’s his core competency & his insight is both deep + valuable – which he rarely shares. Thanks to a finely groomed stream filled only with folks who posts high value -actionable blogs or trading ideas with a thesis & plan inclusive of an entry, stop & targets few of his posts make it to our feed.

Yesterday, however, we had CNBC on while Howard was talking stocks. From San Diego, a “hot bed” for biotech companies (and stock + brokerage scandals), biotech was a big topic throughout the interview. Howard admitted he’s not a trader of biotech stocks (nor are we) but one interesting & notable “theme” he mentioned – quality insights that played right to his core competency of “tech’s future” – was his view that $NKE & $UA are “pseudo biotech plays” due their weaving of technology into apparel that measures & records all sorts of medical & performance related information.

Howard’s view was a smart one (not just because we agree with it, which we do), supported by data which reveals explosive growth & advance in the very segment of the market he spoke to …. and that brings us to $INVN.

TAKE THE CALL WHEN YOUR STOCK IS DOWN

- A MEASURABLE PLAYER: The mood was somber across the $SMH landscape today, much due poor PC data from $HPQ (INVN itself was down a cool 3%) but it’s always important to know – unless you’re a chartist – what the Company you own actually does & how it “fits in” to a sector. In the case of $INVN, it’s focus isn’t in the PC space. InvenSense makes motion & tracking interface solutions in consumer electronics based on its multi-axis gyroscope technology by targeting applications in video gaming devices, smartphones, tablet devices, digital still and video cameras, smart TVs, 3D mice, wearable health and fitness monitors, optical image stabilization products, and portable navigation devices. While not a player in PC’s (good) but a name that participates in high growth areas – despite MACRO economic contraction – like SmartPhones, SmartTV’s, smart appliances, smart apparel, etc. (very good), Howard’s inadvertant “blessing” of the very pond that INVN plays in motivated us to share a more robust take on whether or not INVN looks “smart” on FA & TA.

CHARTS-’O-TRASH

- THE DAILY: Trading just 9% above it’s 52 week low while having cascaded nearly 47% off 52 week highs, the name looks like a dog with fleas to the common crayon. While a SCALP trader type of TA pro may make a case that @ 9.15 may serve as a “triple bottom,” thus defining a fairly low risk STOP, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about if all one does is scan charts.

- THE WEEKLY: Since coming public in late 2011, this chart shows INVN’s been a lackluster performer. In the camp of “anything you can do, I can do better;” the weekly chart bests it’s daily chart brother & offers up the unicorn-esque “quintuple bottom.” We’re not sure what the probability & statistic records are on “quintuple bottoms holding” so we’ll have to peak in on the FA to get a better handle on the name.

FUNDAMENTALS MAKE YOU CASH – Dash For This “Trash”

- WHAT’S TO LIKE: There’s a lot of smart people on the stream that talk about corporate fundamentals & everyone seems to have their own favorite metrics. In a broad market that, for three years, hasn’t traded with any correlate to fundamentals, individual stock selection still has no greater contributor to a trade’s success or failure than FA (unless you’re L: as seemingly any long “works” at some point, you know, “set it & forget it” like Eddy Elfenbein suggests with his model portfolio).

INVN has some “snap shot” components that made us do a deeper due diligence (DD) dive into SEC filigns; Debt: $0, Cash per Share: $1.89, a Price to Earnings Growth Ratio (PEG): 0.92, a Price to Free Cash Flow (P/FCF): 23x, Gross Margins: 54%, Net Margins: 23% and most importantly, a Forward Price to Earnings Ratio (fPE): 13.5x versus Forward Earnings Per Share Growth Estimates (fEPSe): +29%.

Index - P/E 20.30 EPS (ttm) 0.50 Insider Own 0.71% Shs Outstand 84.19M Perf Week 1.40%
Market Cap 854.53M Forward P/E 13.53 EPS next Y 0.75 Insider Trans -93.58% Shs Float 61.69M Perf Month -16.18%
Income 44.02M PEG 0.92 EPS next Q 0.14 Inst Own 55.86% Short Float 15.59% Perf Quarter -21.38%
Sales 186.50M P/S 4.58 EPS this Y 1713.57% Inst Trans -9.38% Short Ratio 4.27 Perf Half Y -17.95%
Book/sh 2.73 P/B 3.72 EPS next Y 29.31% ROA 20.57% Target Price 17.06 Perf Year -36.08%
Cash/sh 1.89 P/C 5.37 EPS next 5Y 22.00% ROE 22.50% 52W Range 9.06 – 18.46 Perf YTD -8.64%
Dividend - P/FCF 22.93 EPS past 5Y 0.00% ROI 22.03% 52W High -46.70% Beta -
Dividend % - Quick Ratio 11.51 Sales past 5Y 127.65% Gross Margin 54.46% 52W Low 8.61% ATR 0.43
Employees 263 Current Ratio 12.63 Sales Q/Q 42.93% Oper. Margin 26.78% RSI (14) 28.56 Volatility 2.78% 3.96%
Optionable Yes Debt/Eq 0.00 EPS Q/Q 86.15% Profit Margin 23.61% Rel Volume 0.66 Prev Close 10.15
Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq 0.00 Earnings Apr 29 Payout 0.00% Avg Volume 2.25M Price 9.84
Recom 2.10 SMA20 -7.32% SMA50 -19.42% SMA200 -17.38% Volume 1,479,606 Change -3.05%

FORWARD PE vs. FORWARD GROWTH – With A Side of Check The History: Coming up in the business as fans of Jim O’Shaughnessy, Scott Black, Michael Price & Peter Lynch, men who made their billions identifying & buying value, we like when we can buy growth companies trading at a discount to their peers & their own above average growth. The last metric noted, INVN’s fPE vs. fEPSe is especially appealing to us; the Company trades with a fPE of just 13.5x and their expectations for FY14 fEPSe growth of +29% (multiple reflects a 50% DISCOUNT to current & forward growth). Further, consider that INVN sees FY13 EPS of $0.58, following FY12′s posted $0.37 per share, +56.7% growth, our interest was peaked. Next, we took a “snap shot” peak at how a Company has performed historically & pair it to what they forecast looking forward. That looked great. Finally, we dug through the SEC filings, which we advise you do as well, and noted that in FY12 the INVN – Samsung relationship accounted for just 2% of INVN’s FY12 REV (we’d guess the most recent Q FY14 guidance raise stems from increased visibility & expanded business with Samsung).

- Here’s what a good EPS history, EPS trend & Growth History looks like:

Earnings History Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12
EPS Est 0.07 0.08 0.16 0.17
EPS Actual 0.07 0.09 0.16 0.19
Difference 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02
Surprise % 0.00% 12.50% 0.00% 11.80%
EPS Trends Current Qtr.
Mar 13
Next Qtr.
Jun 13
Current Year
Mar 13
Next Year
Mar 14
Current Estimate 0.14 0.15 0.58 0.75
7 Days Ago 0.14 0.15 0.58 0.75
30 Days Ago 0.14 0.15 0.58 0.75
60 Days Ago 0.14 0.15 0.58 0.75
90 Days Ago 0.14 0.14 0.54 0.73
Growth Est. INVN Industry Sector S&P 500
Current Qtr. 100.00% -9.20% N/A 10.50%
Next Qtr. 66.70% 15.20% 1,005.70% 16.30%
This Year 56.80% 2.80% 17.80% 8.20%
Next Year 29.30% 39.60% 37.30% 12.80%

LOOK BOTH WAYS – No Stock or Trade is Without Risk

One of the things most on the stream are horrible at is “looking both ways” when sharing their FA, TA, ideas & trades. Trust this; if you like a stock long, there’s likely a bright person who could make short case and, likewise, God forbid you like or trade a stock from the short side, you’ll most certainly hear from a bull. Additionally, STOPS nowadays are rarely, if ever, mentioned in posts. Finally, insightful Q&A by and between two trading professionals who have opposing views – a proper exchange which is void of cursing & backed + supported by facts & data – is even more rare. Today’s stream trader, rather than engage & treat the stream to what could be an insightful and revealing exchange, reaches immediately for the “BLOCK” button while muttering “that guy’s a fucking idiot.”

Foolish, all of it, but we’re not in that camp. We’ve begun a L: INVN and we acknowledge it has some issues;

- The charts are horrible AND the name has cascaded from $15 to below $10 AFTER it posted a “beat REV, beat EPS, raise forward Q REV, raise forward FY14 EPS.” That’s alarming.

- INVN has an open & ongoing patent lawsuit with STM. They call the claims “frivolous” & INVN recently “won” a motion but let’s keep it real; lawsuits are risks.

- Since February, the stock has faced consistent & steady liquidation, again, despite a very strong historical performance & forward looking views relative to FA.

- The stock has very little Institutional coverage or sponsorship & there’s – perhaps – only one person on the stream who knows INVN’s largest shareholder (Partech US Partners). The biggest “name” holder, FMR, LLC., holds (for them) a throw away position of just 5.5% in INVN’s outstanding shares.

SUMMARY & DISCLAIMER

We very much enjoyed Howard’s commentary on the “transformation” of some mainstream apparel names into potentially “pseudo biotechs” & view $INVN as a “pick & shovel” play across multiple sectors, not just apparel. Whether it be closing our curtains from the Nexus 10, our maid having the capacity to start laundry from her SmartPhone or being able to monitor biomechanics from our sports watch during & following a work out, the future for “device development & integration” to make life more efficient & robust should be amazing with $INVN an embedded beneficiary in that expansion.

We’re aware of the risks & are building a SWING L: INVN position, which is currently sized @ 1.75% AUM with a basis of $10.10. We’ve yet to note a STOP because this is a name we’re looking to build up to 12% AUM. Our view that the stock offers exceptional growth at a discounted value is key. The expansion of the Samsung relationship is a potential catalyst. New business opportunities abound & should the $STM lawsuit be resolved, one notable risk removed. We have open orders representing a .5% AUM add & we’d be looking to put on another 1.75% to 2.25% AUM should the name trade below $9.60. Scales would likely be taken between $9.10 – $9.50 but we’ll post specifics, as we always do, live to our Twitter feed. Our opinion is that INVN offers an excellent entry into a name with a strong FA history, amazing FA growth prospects & patents + technology that position it well within one of the most exciting & high growth sectors in the market today.

 

Posted in $HPQ, $INVN, $NKE, $SMH, $UA | Leave a comment

CODDLING AN ORPHAN

ORPHAN ON THE RADAR

One of the area’s in the market that’s paid us well over the years is finding some gems amongst a class of stocks known as “Orphaned IPO’s;” companies discarded by investors after seeing the stock price plummet post offering, subsequently abandoned by their early institutional sponsors & unattended to by formerly ass kissing Bankers. On such name is ACTV - The Active Network, Inc., a provider of organization-based cloud computing application services to business customers in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers ActiveWorks, an organization-based cloud computing platform, which consist primarily of business mapping, project management implementation services – including system set-up and configuration – & data conversion. It serves a range of customers, including community and sports organizations, large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, federal and state government agencies, non-profit organizations, and other related entities.

TIME HORIZON & TA – A Differentiated Look @ The Charts

There’s absolutely nothing pretty about anything below … and that’s exactly what we like, as it gives us time to do the deeper digging to learn about a companies prospects when a stock is out of favor, unfollowed by the masses. Here’s some thoughts on different time frames & how you might play it;

THE SCALP TRADER’S VIEW: At a glance, the chart below shows an equity that’s recently “stopped going down,” putting in a 52 week low @ $3.83 right before – finally – breaking it’s downtrend line from February highs @ just a peak over $6 that stymied the early March run toward $5. The range thus far is April is from the aforementioned 52 week low of $3.83 and $4.27, a range of $0.44.

PROSPECTIVE ACTION: The stock, in the past two days, has begun to retrace some of those gains & a target entry @ the 50% retracement level of this range – or $4.05 – isn’t inappropriate vs. a STOP of break & close below the current year’s low, downside risk of $0.25 or -6%. One might target “profit scales” from a $3.95 to $4.05 entry @ $4.27+ en route to a second target of $4.47 for returns of +5.4% & +10.3% respectively. A break over $4.50 may result in trades up toward $4.63 to $4.83, returns on your “SCALP tail” of somewhere between +14.3% and +19.2% in relatively short order.

 
THE SWING TRADER’S VIEW: Our practice is much more focused on SWING trading & when taking a peak at the daily & monthly charts – as well as taking into considering more top down analysis coupled with FA – we’d take a more cautious view. Although in the immediate term ACTV may have “stopped going down,” one notes that March trading actually saw this name fall out of a 4 month (November ’12 through February ’13) “bottom basing channel” which ranged from the prior 52 week low @ $4.47 and a high of $6.30 while the monthly chart shows that there’s still selling volume despite the late FY12 cascade from $12 to below $6 for an ugly 50% valuation haircut. The action on both charts – for SWING players – suggests one should look more closely at FA factors when mapping their trade plan OR simply wait until, at a minimum, ACTV reclaims entry & holds it’s bottom basing channel at prices at or above $4.47 before considering any action.
 
THE SWING TRADER’S VIEW – Add The FA: The first thing we ask ourselves when looking up a name for a SWING trade is “do we like the sector & does that sector allow for outsized growth given the data & our current MACRO economic outlook?” In the ACTV case, we can answer “yes,” as the cloud provides efficiencies across corporations that are always looking for ways to trim fat & manufacture EPS for their businesses. Next, we take a look at the FA & it’s here that we find company specific data that suggests “there’s no rush to own this name.” On the surface; the fPE (forward PE): 22x vs fEPSe (forward PE estimate) growth of +290% is appealing, as is a P/S (price to sales): 0.6x, P/B (price to book): 0.8x and a P/C Ratio (price to cash): 4.3x. The Company carries an unmentionable sliver of debt and GM (gross margins) have been maintained at a robust 54% … they just haven’t yet figured out how to drive money to the bottom line (resulting in NM – net margins – and subsequent EPS – earnings per share).

 

Index - P/E - EPS (ttm) -0.74 Insider Own 8.16% Shs Outstand 60.95M Perf Week 1.96%
Market Cap 253.55M Forward P/E 21.89 EPS next Y 0.19 Insider Trans -14.30% Shs Float 48.82M Perf Month -13.69%
Income -43.03M PEG - EPS next Q -0.18 Inst Own 71.57% Short Float 8.53% Perf Quarter -24.09%
Sales 418.89M P/S 0.61 EPS this Y -42.85% Inst Trans 2.54% Short Ratio 5.67 Perf Half Y -64.69%
Book/sh 5.45 P/B 0.76 EPS next Y 290.00% ROA -7.53% Target Price 8.92 Perf Year -74.94%
Cash/sh 0.96 P/C 4.33 EPS next 5Y 27.50% ROE -12.67% 52W Range 3.83 – 17.24 Perf YTD -15.27%
Dividend - P/FCF - EPS past 5Y 0.00% ROI -11.74% 52W High -75.87% Beta -
Dividend % - Quick Ratio 0.75 Sales past 5Y 32.68% Gross Margin 54.21% 52W Low 8.62% ATR 0.18
Employees 3036 Current Ratio 0.77 Sales Q/Q 23.18% Oper. Margin -9.46% RSI (14) 38.15 Volatility 3.50% 4.39%
Optionable Yes Debt/Eq 0.02 EPS Q/Q -51.29% Profit Margin -10.27% Rel Volume 0.32 Prev Close 4.17
Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq 0.01 Earnings Apr 29 Payout - Avg Volume 733.78K Price 4.16
Recom 2.10 SMA20 -4.19% SMA50 -14.44% SMA200 -51.42% Volume 232,465 Change -0.24%
THE CONCERNS: Typically, we want to see a Company have a positive EPS history (beat, beat, raise types) & names that are raising forward FY EPS estimates, as they’re signs of corporate growth & robust business. Unfortunately, we don’t see that YET in ACTV & that’s – in large part – why, when coupled with the TA, there’s no rush to buy this stock. Note that, although ACTV’s posted EPS “beats” in 2 of it’s last 4 Q’s, it’s only “beat” in terms of lighter losses. When it comes to the Q’s where ACTV is expect to generate positive EPS, they’ve only “met or missed.” This reinforces the statement above … “they just haven’t yet figured out how to drive money to the bottom line.”

 

Earnings History Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12
EPS Est -0.31 0.15 0.05 -0.11
EPS Actual -0.19 0.11 0.05 -0.10
Difference 0.12 -0.04 0.00 0.01
Surprise % 38.70% -26.70% 0.00% 9.10%
Another issue plaguing ACTV is forward guidance. One is much more prone to act when you see a depressed stock price yet forward Q & FY EPS guidance being boosted. We don’t have that here, in fact, it’s quite the opposite (another reminder that “there’s no need to rush into this name”). As noted below, it’s not so much the two near term Q’s that are the problem. ACTV reports on April 29 & they expect ($0.18) – an estimate that’s a little worse than it had been a couple months ago – BUT that downward adjustment to the March ’13 appears to be a contract push out that the Company expects to recapture in the Jun ’13 Q, as noted by a guidance raise from $0.09 to $0.11. The real problem that exists is the forward FY14 guidance slash to what could have been a VERY healthy swing from annual losses to positive EPS. Moving the needle from estimates of ($0.08) to ($0.10) as they’ve done for the current FY13, that’s not so bad. The Street can handle that, however, following it up with a view for the following year that previously pitted you making $0.72 of annual EPS & shaving that down to just $0.19 as noted below … that’s a tough pill to swallow.  Nevertheless, companies that morph their business from money losers to profitable enterprises can & do often yield massive gains in stock price BUT such a guidance slash a) mutes upside to a degree & b) confirms a “no rush” trading approach. We’d instead opt for a more “prove it to me” stance over the next 4 months (enabling one to evaluate both EPS prints for the current March Q & the forthcoming June Q).

 

EPS Trends Current Qtr.
Mar 13
Next Qtr.
Jun 13
Current Year
Dec 13
Next Year
Dec 14
Current Estimate -0.18 0.11 -0.10 0.19
7 Days Ago -0.18 0.11 -0.10 0.19
30 Days Ago -0.18 0.11 -0.10 0.19
60 Days Ago -0.15 0.09 -0.08 0.63
90 Days Ago -0.15 0.09 -0.08 0.72
PROSPECTIVE ACTION: Love the sector & ACTV already has some specific attributes that are interesting, relative to peers on FA, but this stock likely trades sideways over the next 4 months. That said, $4.27 is a key area to watch, as is $6.30, well above current prices. If one had to guess, noting the continuance in selling volume even following the name’s 50% decline from $12 to $6- during September & October ’12 AND it’s recent “bottom basing channel” breach below $4.27, we’d only begin to consider light scales on a re-approach of current 52 week and all time lows – call it $4-. We’ll be looking for seller exhaustion & enhancements to corporate execution to, hopefully, occur in lock-step and target a full size holding of 8% AUM at a cost basis under $3.50, preferring $3.15-. Will it get there? No idea. Why $3.15? As with all our SWING trades, we target 100% returns in 12 – 18 months. It may sound outsized & fanciful but it’s not. The target % return does, however, have to work in parallel with realities as defined on both the chart & on the balance sheet. Alas, as the stock’s traded to $6.30 this year (with FA that should trail the forthcoming 12 – 18 month period) we don’t think it’s a stretch to have it revisit that level … and hopefully it does so AFTER allowing us an entry @ $3.15, yielding a cool 100% return for our work.
Posted in $ACTV | Leave a comment

INSIDER BUYS

There’s an old adage on Wall Street about there being “dozen’s of reasons an Insider may SELL his/her own stock but there’s only one reason they BUY itto make money!” That adage, while true, only partially outlines the work you need to do to maximize your probability AND profitability when employing an “INSIDER PIGGYBACK STRATEGY.” Knowing who, historically, has been an astute & highly profitable – legal – Insider Trader (and who to avoid), what % of their TOTAL position are they adding (SIZE), buying cheaper than “they” have (COST) and PAIRING that knowledge to an FA + TA = PROFITS trade plan is how to make the BIG SCORE.

INSIDER PIGGYBACK IDEA – Initiated: February 27, 2013 (Sample)

Let’s take a look at a slow, unexciting, low volume SWING TRADING prospect that would demand a 9-12 month trading time horizon to maximize gain prospects & play out using FREE INFORMATION from $YHOO Finance & Finviz anyone can access. For more in depth scoring histories & deeper detail head to SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES: http://legacytrades.com/?page_id=11

Intevac, Inc. ( $IVAC ) provides process manufacturing equipment solutions to the hard disk drive industry, and process manufacturing equipment and inspection solutions to the photovoltaic industry. The company operates in two segments, Equipment and Intevac Photonics. The Equipment segment designs, develops, and markets magnetic disks; hard disk drive equipment products, including disk sputtering and disk lubrication systems; technology upgrades; and spare parts and consumables, as well as installation, maintenance, and repair services. This segment also offers capital equipment for the photovoltaic solar manufacturing industry. The Intevac Photonics segment develops, manufactures, and sells digital-optical products for the capture and display of low-light images and materials identification used in military aircraft, ground vehicles, ground soldier head-mounted, and weapon-mounted applications. This segment also provides sensors, cameras, and systems for military applications; Raman spectrometer table-top and handheld systems for use in forensics, homeland security, geology, gemology, medical, pharmaceutical, and industrial quality assurance applications; and low-light cameras for industrial inspection, bio-medical, and scientific applications. The company sells its products through direct sales force, system integrators, distributors, and value added resellers in the United States, Asia, Europe, and rest of world. Intevac, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

DAILY CHART – Truth told, there’s nothing pretty about this daily for $IVAC. Save for a short term, SCALP trade (using the 52 week low of $4.06 as a break & close below STOP), there’s little attraction to a long.

MONTHY CHART – More truth told, the monthly for $IVAC is little better. The stock looks left for dead but, perhaps, for SWING PLAYERS, there’s some attraction at the prospective R(isk) : R(eward) Ratio using a clear STOP (break & 3 consecutive days of close below near decade lows), paired to ‘improving FA’ & recent insider buys.

FUNDAMENTALLY SPEAKING 

SALES – No delusions of grandeur, this is a very tiny, niche player that expects to see anemic REV growth in FY’13 @ +3.2%, generating sales right around 20MM per quarter. YoY comparisons show pretty healthy DECLINES in sales growth, however, traders trade FUTURE PROSPECTS and, as you note below, the Company expects REV growth in FY’14 of nearly +50% and a review of SEC filings pertaining to contract wins & renewals appears to support “some growth (albeit the +47.9% remains to be seen).”

Revenue Est        Mar 13       Jun 13      FY’13      FY’14
Avg. Estimate  14.80M  17.90M  86.08M 127.35M
Low Estimate 14.60M 15.70M 83.35M 107.00M
High Estimate 15.00M 20.10M 88.80M 147.70M
Year Ago Sales 17.32M 31.79M 83.42M 86.08M
Sales Growth -14.50% -43.70% 3.20% 47.90%

PRIOR EPS – Peaking in at the last 4 Q’s of EPS, well, there is none. $IVAC loses money. The “good news,” they’re losing less than expected and for a name that has no debt & $2.76/share in cash with the stock currently priced @ $4.30 & the ability to lever, if needed, with growth prospects on the horizon, the trend of smaller losses is somewhat encouraging.

Earnings History Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12
EPS Est -0.24 -0.07 -0.36 -0.26
EPS Actual -0.14 -0.06 -0.34 -0.15
Difference 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.11
Surprise % 41.70% 14.30% 5.60% 42.30%

FORWARD LOOKING EPS ESTIMATES (fEPSe) – The past is the past, money is made putting out capital following an evaluation & due diligence based on FUTURE prospects and performance. While $IVAC has substantially lowered their FY’14 fEPSe, one notes that they’ve “kitchen sinked” FY’13, en route to an estimated ($0.82/share). This comes in hand with multi-year trading lows in the name. What you’re looking for here are REVERSAL prospects denoting healthier days lie ahead. The Company sees EPS moving from ($0.82) in FY’13 to +$0.01 in FY’14. Given a history of smaller losses, the soundness of the balance sheet & the insider buying, we’d say there’s ample clues that the direction of the turn around prospects are intriguing.

EPS Trends Mar 13 Jun 13 FY’13 FY’14
Current Est. -0.35 -0.25 -0.82 0.01

INSIDER BUYING – The fact is, this crop of insiders aren’t the sharpest buyers on the block. Beginning in May 2012, no fewer than 5 corporate executives (a Director, an EVP, a VP of Finance & Administration, the CEO / Chairman and the President) began nibbling. One poor dolt initiated his L: $IVAC @ $7.56 – $7.59. A pair of executives followed suit in August 2012 @ $5.42 – $5.56 while one took a light & foolish stab L: in September 2012 @ $6.20. Two executives did some year end work L: in November 2012 @ $4.81 – $4.90 but we’re most interest in recent February buys – notable because a cautious Director with a history of successful ADD’s tacked on 20% to his holding – between 4.20 & 4.31.

TRADE ACTION

This is no barn burner, just a lower-”ish” risk SWING TRADE name you can look up with a tight STOP. The MACRO sector this name operates in has begun to yield some catalysts and specific or MICRO to this name, you’ve got several components of interest; an “improving” EPS history in the form of consistently lighter than expected losses over the past 4 Q’s, the prospect of a return to EPS positive in the forward year FY’14, insider buying from multiple executives who, as the stock trades at near decade lows are adding a large % size to their total holdings paired to the prospect of a TA “double bottom” that allows for a STOP on a violation of the pattern should $IVAC trade & close below $4.

We rarely find the need to PAY MORE than what an INSIDER has but in this case we’re willing to pay a little more than the $4.20 to $4.31 recent buys so we’d propose;

SCALE SWING L: $IVAC @ 4.40 (lighter) down to $3.90 (heavier). The target cost basis on a full position would be 4.05. We would STOP the trade – based on a full position – on a break & close below $3.65 for a loss of @ -9%. The time horizon for the SWING TRADE would be 9-12 months with loosely stated TARGETS of $6.10, $8.20 & $10+.

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MOTHER TRUCKER

Have you noticed all the love for $WNC on the stream recently? It’s a tad “late” but it’s for good measure. The name - though carrying some debt & not much cash - has great “surface” FA & just delivered a big, big, quarter. Wabash makes trailers, you know, those things hooked to the arse end of semi trucks you see driving on the freeway. We know the transportation sector pretty well & here’s the thing about “trailer names,” they post fundamental performance that “trails” the actual market trends. Trailers are cheap, low margin components in the daisy chain of importance to a transportation operator, with the tractor & parts / services being the prime focus & expense.

Don’t let the “great trailer” sales posted recently by $WNC lull you into the belief that the Truckers are in good shape; they aren’t. Business Insider reporter Matt Boesler noted a $MS report way back in August 2012 foreseeing this slow down ( http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-trucking-lead-indicator-us-economy-recession-2012-8?op=1 ) and, well, what do you know, they were right on the money …. WardsAuto.com (data through February 12, 2013) as posted in the February 18, 2013 print edition of Transport Topics, noted that US heavy duty Class 8 (that’s the semi or tractor part) sales declined 6.8% in January YoY to 13,158 units – the LOWEST monthly total since July 2011.  It was the FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH, following 32 consecutive months of gain, manufacturers & dealers reported a YoY decline in the Class 8 sales.

What does it all mean? Who knows but we’ll tell you this, IF you take a “trailer” L: $WNC time horizon & timing is key and IF you need a pair or to hedge it up, go ahead & cue up “trucker” SS: $PCAR (sales -21% YoY posted in their Q4 2012 report … ouch) or, for the bold, wrestle Carl Icahn head on and SS: $NAV (sales -18% YoY posted in their Q4 2012 report … ouch), as the Company has a date with bankruptcy.

Posted in $MS, $NAV, $PCAR, $WNC | Leave a comment

THINKING OUT LOUD

BROAD MARKET THOUGHTS

 Resilient isn’t even the right word for this market, it’s more worthy of a phrase …. perhaps “hey short sellers & hedgers, how do you like that ramrod shoved straight up your arse” or something like that (please excuse our language, we – as traders – are often prone to shoddy language). Fortunately, our SCALP – Equity SS: in $PHM, $MDC, $SPF, $PCAR, $NAV, $V and $MGM are doing pretty well for us since recent initiation, however, the same can NOT be said about our SCALP & SWING – Futures SS: in $ES_F & $TF_F.

FA + TA = PROFITS

Dating ourselves, we’re fans of the Peter Lynch commentary on PEG (Price / EPS Growth) ratios & measuring fPE (forward PE’s) vs fEPSe (forward EPS estimated growth) when we do our stock screening. There are several other metrics we “overlay” to this primary FA screen driver, such as historical REV & EPS performance (favoring “beat – beat – raise” names) & to that end, we’re interested in doing more work on two names that have a) already reported very strong EPS reports, b) a consistent EPS history of out performance in their 4 prior prints, c) both MICRO & MACRO catalysts that favor each name HIGHER and d) the TA pattern of a “bull flag” but, of course, we know that can quickly turn into a “bullSHIT flag.”

$TRLG (keen on this name L: scales 25.95 – 26.95) is one of only 14 US based apparel names that trades @ a P/FCF (price to free cash flow) below 30 & one of only 3 US based names trading with a PE below 15. As the current PEG is marked to 1, we prefer accumulating the name at a “discount,” thus the noted L: scales areas below current trading prices.

$TZOO (keen on this name L: scales 19.90 to 21.10), similar to $TRLG, trades with a PEG @ .94 (not a great “discount”), $TZOO is the forgotten name in Internet travel & bookings – which trends show are growing nicely – both on a MICRO & MACRO level. Trading @ a P/FCF of 10x and at just P/C (price to cash) of 5.5x, the FA prospects paired with the bull flag TA pattern may suggest this name is one to participate in if & when the L: scale area comes into play.

Posted in $ES_F, $TF_F, $TRLG, $TZOO | Leave a comment

MATH, ASSET ALLOCATION & “THE HOAX”

Twitter is full of clowns, fakes & posters (“CFP’s”) that some – even well followed & good people (such as a former trader & risk manager from $GS who posts regularly) – get punk’d by. One such CFP example is @HedgeStrategy. We misstepped & Reco’d this account before, however, we correct the mistake – admitted a wrong – and retracted the Reco with an “Unfollow + Why.” It seems many have forgotten the “why” but as Joe builds yet another of his “1,000%, 5,000% up to 20,000% position size hoax trades,” it’s a good time to revisit why we took such action over 1 year ago.

THE PROBLEM: OVERREACHING & HAVING NO CONCEPT OF RISK MANAGEMENT (wanting to make a “statement”)

Consider the following: At various times, @HedgeStrategy takes VERY concentrated, HIGH CONVICTION positions & there’s nothing wrong with that …. so long as you define risk, right? Step #1, check his stream & try to find even the hint of a STOP (defined RISK). Nope. Negative. Troublesome.  Next, have you ever actually taken a pencil to what a “1,000%, 5,000% or 20,000% sized position” would mean relative to a REAL MONEY portfolio? If you have, you’ve already clicked this CFP’s “unfollow” button but for those of you “captivated by the conviction,”  let’s actually check the AUM “tail of the tape.” This is where things really go rogue.

THE BREAKDOWN

*Presume Total AUM = 100% or $10,000,000.

*Presume Total FUTURES or CURRENCY Allocation of Total AUM = 10% or $1,000,000. Joe “allegedly” runs a Long, Short, Market Neutral Hedge Fund and invests across asset class including but not limited to – depending on charter – equity, options, debt, futures, currency, horses, lamps, glass blown dildos & all sorts of other “exotic instruments.” In all cases, the “Futures and/or Currency” allocations – as they’re levered trading instruments carrying HIGH RISK – is going to get just a small cut of the Total AUM.

*Basic Math: A total “all in,” 100% sized FUTURES or CURRENCY trade = 10% of Total AUM or a $1,000,000 trade putting 10% of the Total AUM at risk …. HOWEVER;

What happens when you GOOSE a total “all in,” 100% sized FUTURES or CURRENCY position or 10% of Total AUM ($1,000,000 out of your Total AUM of $10,000,000) up to a 1,000% trade size?

*WHAT HAPPENS IS YOU GET 100% OF TOTAL AUM (10% total Futures or Currency AUM x 1000% position size = 100% of TOTAL AUM) IN THE ENTIRE FUND, ON MARGIN, ON LEVERAGE BAKED INTO ONE FUCKING TRADE …. also known as “a hoax.”

A BETTER WAY

We’re not financial advisers or brokers or Estate planners & everyone has to manage + allocate their AUM in a way that suits their risk tolerance, age, personal situation, etc. Many of you – who manage outside money, which we do NOT – must take into account Sharpe Ratio & the like (my buddy @MicroFundy wrote a great article on this) but I can assure you, as the day is long, that NO real world money manager, trader, HF or PM ever has 100% of their Total AUM in ONE trade and if you find someone @ the Bar or Hockey Arena or in an Airport or, certainly, on Twitter who says they are, well folks, that there is the “mark” of a liar, a loser & a no asset having chimp ……… and that’s the bottom line.

Look, maybe guys like @reformedbroker who can go on “Fast Money” and scoff at a 56% misstep SS: $NFLX from October & laugh have the game all figured out but FOR THE REST OF YOU, REAL MONEY TRADING FOLKS, you know that with real money on the line you can’t “afford” even properly allocated trades hitting you for -56%. Our plight is simple; we run real money. We use STOPS. We define thesis along with scale entry range, target basis & price objectives like ALL PM’s who run real assets. We can’t tolerate -56% losses. We can’t take a @HedgeStrategy “all in, 100% of my Total AUM Fund value” in one trade because we manage risk & allocate assets properly.  If you want to stay in the game, you should too! 

Interested in seeing what asset allocation looks like on $10,000,000 trading across just four products; Real Estate, Equity, Options & Futures?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JDKIrk9pVJqjUgG8kzdeJUU2FJowS12hYUjw0cB0-SY/edit

REAL MONEY, REAL TIME:

We are presently SWING SS: a 62.5% position in $ES_F @ 1471.25. The trade is down. We trade with (as posted above) 12% of our Total AUM in our SWING Futures account, meaning IF we were to take our SWING SS: $ES_F position to 100% size (currently @ 62.5%) and LOSE 100% on the trade (there is no way, with a noted STOP, we’d lose 100% in any trade but we’ll humor you with the basic math) our Total AUM would suffer a draw down of 12%, however, if you’re running one of Joe’s Hoaxes at 1,000% size & the trade got clipped, well, you’re pretend Fund, like his, would be at $0.

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MORNING VIEW: January 17, 2013

Markets, across the board, showing resilience & bull defense of $ES_F @ 1460 & $TF_F @ 870 (877 nearer term). Noticed that nobody caught yesterday’s announcement from Germany that they’ll see 0% GDP growth in FY13. We’ve known the UK economy’s toast but, now, the “pillar of strength” in the EU – Germany – is quietly slipping into recession. Oh, yes, back home here …. well …. this week brought slashed, forward looking, FY13 growth estimates for the US too but the backward looking releases of Q4’12 EPS have largely beaten expectations & taken up most of the MSM “headline space.”

Interesting – potentially – actionable pieces of news paired with trade ideas for the day.

- $RIO:  Tom Albanese spent over 20 years w/ RIO but even a good soldier is sometimes excused for conduct unbecoming ……. and a 14B write down tied to two of your firms largest acquisitions done, principally, to fend off your bitter rivals ( $BHP ) acquisition overtures - regardless of price or “fit” – yeah, about that …….. that gets you canned. Look, this sector “isn’t ready” for the deployment of any serious money & RIO had just a miserable year (3 straight 20%+ EPS misses & generally dreadful execution) but there’s a trade in here somewhere.

THE ARTICLE:  http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/ceo-replaced-as-rio-tinto-to-book-14-billion-write-down/?partner=yahoofinance

THE ACTION: The sector is not yet attracting LT “pro money” for the simple & basic reason noted at the outset of this post … global growth is slowing, not expanding, and “pro money” will only begin kicking around this sector on data showing signs of stabilization / trough slowing. That said – and management shake up aside – valuation is reasonable @ RIO; trading currently @ fPE: 7.5x vs FY13 EPSe growth expectations of +23% with manageable debt, ample cash & a fair 3%+ yield. Sure, the PEG: 2.7x is a little rich but you’re working this name as more Spec(ial) Sit(uation) than trade pure play. The name is most attractive on our desk SWING L: RIO 48 – 50, stop on a close @ 43-, however, Scalp traders may want to trade @ the 50SMA near 53. Scalp L: RIO 51 – 53, stop on a close @ 48-.

- $BA:  We’ve discussed Boeing on the stream before and – aside from chop stocks ( $HDY, $HEK, $STSI, $NTE, $CCME, $LIWA and on & on & on) or “negative” posts re: $AAPL – no other posts received more ire. People seem to love their BA. Our view remains the same (so hate away); there is no other US business, beyond the USPS, that is more of an embarrassment. Formerly a US source of pride showcasing engineering expertise, ingenuity, toughness & top quality work, Boeing has withered into a Company we’re forced to “applaud” when they deliver a substandard product, two years late & a billion plus over budget. In the bigger picture, it speaks to the US educational drain. It’s a “lightning rod” topic, for sure, but ask yourself …. why applaud costly & bloated, delayed and all around mediocre performance? We don’t & won’t.

THE ARTICLE:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/boeing-787-groundings-trace-to-one-of-a-kind-technology.html?cmpid=yhoo

THE ACTION:  This one’s simple on the break of 74; avoid or short it. Stop on a close @ 78+ & ride this dirt pig to 72.25-, 71.40-, 69.70- & perhaps even 68- as your “final cover.”

- $XLF:  Financials printing EPS this week fast & furious; revealing a very reasonable # at $JPM, weak internals plaguing an otherwise “headline happy” print @ $BAC while $C remains the junk of the block, unable to get out of it’s own way. Meanwhile, as you all saw $GS blow the doors out (yet, you’re too afraid to buy breaking out L: $MS which is cheaper) you may have missed that ETF warehouse $BLK posted impressive metrics across the board ($0.26 EPS beat, 12% dividend raise, increases buyback, + fwd outlook).

THE ARTICLE:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/blackrock-profit-rises-24-as-etf-deposits-boost-assets.html?cmpid=yhoo

THE ACTION:  What a beautiful chart on $BLK since basing throughout June, July & August in the 160 – 170 window, however, it approaches fully valued & should only be marked on a pull back. FA shows a name trading fPE: 14.7x vs FY13 EPSe growth expectations of @ +13%, P/FCF: 24x carrying a PEG: 1.4x. Debt here is very manageable, Company carries ample cash & with today’s yield bump, you’re getting close to a 3% dividend. Again, all fair but approaching “full.” Look this one up for a Scalp L: only under 210 & there’s no need to be a serious Swing L: player until 200-. Yes, the stock’s trading 225 & perhaps 210 & 200 seems silly. Patience grasshopper, patience. You’ll get it.

TWO FOR THE ROAD

1. What are our two favorite Swing L: FA + TA = BIG PROFITS trades?

Swing L: $REGI under 6.25, favor target basis L: @ 5.50 and stop on a close @ 4.30-. Swing L: $FTEK under 4.50, favor target basis L: @ 4.00 and stop on a close @ 3.10- (DISCLOSURE: Author is Swing L: $FTEK @ 4.14).

2. What are our favorite Scalp L: FA + TA = BIG PROFITS trades?

In a “right here, right now” kind of way: Scalp L: $MGAM & Scalp L: $SHFL. In an “on a pull back” type of way: Scalp L: $INVN & Scalp L: $SURG.

Finally, let’s not neglect the S(hort)S(ide) shall we.

“Four to Fade” have already begun working – wait on further attack in each on “pops” or “rips” – Scalp or Swing SS: $FSLR, Scalp or Swing SS: $CRM, Scalp or Swing SS: $WGO, Scalp or Swing SS: previously noted $XHB names (NOT the $TOL or $DHI though).

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MORNING VIEW: January 14, 2013

We won’t lament, whine or comment on the drubbing we took with our NFL wagers this weekend, instead, we’ll share a couple – potentially – actionable pieces of news & pair it with some trade ideas for the day.

- $AAPL:  Although we rarely, if ever, trade it & STILL produce 4x+ returns of the many Eeyore’s who day trade it, the AAPL news will be all over the MSM & Twitter stream. In case someone on your stream hasn’t already RT’d it 1000x, the jist is that AAPL has cut iPhone PARTS orders due “weak demand:”

THE ARTICLE:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241051730364998.html

THE ACTION: For us, none. For those who day trade for a living, trade the technical’s because there’s virtually no argument an FA guy/gal could make – TODAY – with AAPL’s balance sheet or valuation, suggesting it’s rich or should be shorted (the name, however, on a LT basis can very easily be argued Swing SS: by FA players, predominantly, on margin compression, lack of new product visibility & peak sales).  If we had to guess, the stock breaches into the 490′s today, however, this “news” may also produce a “Facebook moment (wherein everyone was Scalp SS: heading into the lock up expiration & the stock subsequently RIPPED higher, sheering Scalp SS: faces off along the way).”  Participation in AAPL, for those who put real money on the line, is likely best done post (they’re next) EPS print (regardless as to whether price has ripped higher through 550+ due to a beat OR down around 470- because Tim Cook produced yet another miss).

- $HWD:  Swatch Group – which trades on the Pink Sheets – makers of those wildly colorful watches we pimped in the 80′s, apparently, is still in business & miraculously has enough coin to pay $1B ($750MM cash, $250MM assumed debt) for Harry Winston’s watch & jewelry brands. Impressive. This pretty much leaves HWD as a pure play diamond company … unless they have plans to release a smartphone, electric car or some sort of solar panel.

THE ARTICLE:  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/us-swatch-harry-winston-idUSBRE90D08F20130114

THE ACTION:  Trading @ 14.46 on Friday’s close, HWD traded fully valued on FA; sporting a fPE: 25x vs. expected FY13 EPSe growth of +20%, a PEG: .93x & priced at 33.5x free cash flow however, the TA + this deal make for an interesting Scalp L: trade. A late December plunge through the 20 & 50 SMA’s halted right on LT support @ 13.20 & the stock immediately rebounded, recapturing both the 50 SMA @ 13.95 & the 20 SMA @ 14.05. Energy & volume, especially on a closing basis, above 14.75 – 15 suggests that risk : reward favors higher (like, 16+ higher vs. STOP of 13.25-).

- $UPS:  The #1 package delivery company in the world (no, it’s not $FDX) looks like it’ll be forced to drop the 6.9B acquisition bid for Dutch based TNT Express. European regulators muddied the waters for UPS & were expected to block the deal, leaving $UPS on the hook to pay a 200MM Euro termination fee. Cost of doing business & taking risk, ouch!

THE ARTICLE:  http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-01-14/ups-says-it-expects-eu-regulators-to-drop-tnt-acquisition

THE ACTION:  This news wasn’t “secret,” obviously, look @ the chart & trading in the last 3 days; stocks ripped from 75.90 to 78 “just because.”  We’d guess there weren’t any funny options trades either but I’m too lazy to look / confirm that thought.  Trading @ 77.92 on Friday’s close, UPS traded fully valued on FA; sporting a fPE: 15x vs. expected FY13 EPSe growth of +11.8%, a sky high PEG of 2.32x & sported a lofty 28x price to free cash flow.  Though saddled w/ the 200MM Euro termination fee, that’ll be no problem for UPS, as they sit w/ nearly $9.50/share in cash + marketable/liquid securities. On TA, this name offers you a two way trade – depending on your proclivity. A Scalp SS: would look @ the 79 – 80 level & see a double top in UPS, which is also stretched / extended well above all relevant SMA’s (20, 50, 150, 200). The name is STRAIGHT UP nearly $5/share or 7% in the new year. Conversely, Scalp L: players will tell you to look at the strength in the broad tape & this particular chart in the new year & buy that breakout over 79 – 80.  I hear there’s a lot of guys/gals who make money doing that, maybe you’re one of ‘em …. I never met one though.  Regardless, this isn’t a name we’ll trade.

IF NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED, WHAT MIGHT YOU TRADE?

The markets are hot, led by the Russell ($TF_F) which is running amok like a scalded chimp. Protection is the order of the day & for the brave, like us, you Scalp SS: vs. a break & close over 1474 (we are SS: $ES_F & the Nasdaq via $QQQ Jan puts, as posted).

The BEST names worth a look ON PULL BACKS are those that don’t just have a good chart … they also have good fundamentals.  Look no further than the great numbers coming out of Ag Chem & Farm Equipment.  As $CAT & $DE were toiling in the litter box, we pointed you to L: $MNTX as it offered exceptional value on FA & sat at a tradable + well defined TA apex @ 7.10. The name proceeded to rip right out of the apex to 8.50+ for a lovely 19.7% gain in under two weeks. Suggesting folks rim some is prudent, let it come in a little, and look to participate again should it pull back under 8. If you missed $MON, we handed you $TNH (an SMA cluster + well defined TA apex trade at December’s end, with great underlying FA + yield, if there ever was one) @ 215-218 & $UAN @ 25 (staging to breakout above 27 when priced cheap on FA + offering a nice yield to mitigate risk) & both ripped higher, trading @ 254 & 27.75, respectively, dishing you sweet gains. Again, be prudent & trim a little off your trade – reloading, if you like, on a pull back (for $TNH @ 235- & in $UAN @ 26.75-). The FA in each of these names AND sectors are strong, the TA is very “readable (clean entry & stops)” & let FA + TA reward you with BIG PROFITS.

Finally, if those don’t work for you, do some work on a few of these symbols. We’re certain you’ll find several out sized gainers in the pile:

$GKNT$PDFS$AOS$WGO (short), $HLF$POWR$KLIC$YNDX$MGAM$INVN$PRAA$REGI (already ripped, let it come in a little), $PACW$CDNS, a @PhilipEtienne notable $SXL$SURG$UA, $MRVCD$ORBC (already ripped, let it come in a little), $DHI (watch reaction in this $XHB name in response to upcoming EPS print @ $LEN), $CTCT$EGHT$EZPW$PIR$SHFL$SLCA (already ripped, let it come in a little), $TCRD$XXIA or $FSLR (short).

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TWITTER POSTS: December 15 – 31, 2012

HOT HEAT – Things really got cooking, from an “idea flow” stand point in what most call Garbage Time of year end market trading.

As we’ve done for years, we shared regular DAY / SCALP trading in $ES_F & $TF_F posted & stamped, live & in real time, seeking R(isk) : R(eward) Ratios that skew in the day traders favor, targeting -1 or less : +3 or better. “Garbage Time” provided some excellent opportunities to add to your Christmas gift giving cash haul.

Year end DAY / SCALP and HELD – Core Equity & Option portfolio changes were done with an eye on the change in tax landscape; this meant more selling than buying along with a proper dose of updating. These were also posted & stamped, live & in real time, just as they have been for years – Good, Bad or Flat. We added to Scalp L: $SPY Jan 140 puts (Dec 18) and were fortunate enough to sell a portion of the holding – albeit short of target – (Dec 27). We updated, as planned, you of our ADD to Swing L: $DRAD (Dec 18) & started a new Swing L: $MKL on it’s cascade toward strong support @ 425 following a large M&A deal (Dec 19 & 20). The market gave us continued opportunity to scale down size in HELD – Core L: $ICAD for big gains +94 to +108% (Dec 20 & 21) & L: $RIMM +87% (Dec 20). For the life of us, we couldn’t get a price on L: $SHOR (Dec 21) but we provided trade plan updates all the same, as we did for L: $FTEK (Dec 17 & 18)

Finally, while we did little in the way of MACRO thinking or commentary around the holiday, we did look in on Truckers $RUSHA & $CVTI (Dec 18) & revisited $NAV (Dec 19) while peaking in on $XHB data again (Dec 19 & 21), however, we opted for reflection & soul searching as a result of the tragedy @ Sandy Hook Elementary School. In our opinion, there was no greater summary post on the matter than that which was shared by PhD Psychologist & Trader @attitrade (Dec 16). Individual TRADE RADAR name reviews picked up as we headed into the New Year & there were some real under followed gems – Long & Short – we hope you profited from; $GKNT (Dec 18), $PDFS$AOS, $WGO, $HLF, the $MBI vs $BAC (which Todd Sullivan so atrociously ‘legally opines on,’ as a non-lawyer), the power of $POWR > $PWER on FA + TA (all Dec 19), $KLIC updates (Dec 19 & 21) & our very own version of a “Tweet Show” focused on Fundamental Analysis (FA) with special charting guest @TheFibDoctor weighing in on Fibonacci Technical Analysis (TA) on L: $MNTX (Dec 20). The following week brought MORE HOT HEAT with reviews of $YNDX (Dec 22) and a nice smattering of under followed gems $MGAM, $INVN, $PRAA, $REGI, $PACW, $CDNS & a @PhilipEtienne notable $SXL (all on Dec 24). Additionally, $SURG, $FSLR, $MU, Einhorn’s terrible trade in $MRVL & a ‘reveal’ of one of our “Stocks of the Year for 2013″ L: $MRVCD were discussed (Dec 27), along with $ORBC, $DHI, $CTCT, $EGHT, $EZPW, $PIR, $SHFL, $SLCA, $TCRD and $XXIA all offered up on New Year’s Eve (Dec 31).

ALL POSTS:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h7ceABVYHzB9hS6gCw7NcbFhKxQ-orrc72THj1F3i0k/edit

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