We’ve seen a very interesting, late month, surge in Insider Buying Activity & a range of names this month that spans MicroCap to LargeCap, liquid & illiquid, poor FA to great FA & ugly TA to nice looking TA. A total of 14 names make the “Notable Insider PIGGYBACK July Buys” list – for the full list & trade plans for each email firstname.lastname@example.org – and one name familiar to just about everyone is;
NBR – The Bermuda based Oil & Gas Driller is our favorite name on the list this month. The sector (Energy, Oil & Gas Driller + Explorer) is an attractive one for both ST & LT traders alike, two Directors added a very significant % interest to their holdings, the FA is attractive for Swing Traders & the TA offers clean entry & stop levels w/ a very positive Risk : Reward skew in favor of both Day / Scalp + Swing Traders.
INSIDER BUYS OF SIZE – Director John Kotts raises his stake in NBR from 27,000 shares to 147,000 shares w/ buys of 85,000 shares @ $15.02 (7/25) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163739/000112760213023587/xslF345X03/form4.xml & 35,000 shares @ $14.79 (7/26) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163739/000112760213023587/xslF345X03/form4.xml and Director Howard Wolf joined Kotts in buying on 7/25 & 7/26, increasing his stake from a 27,000 shares to 45,000 shares w/ buys of 11,000 shares @ $14.90 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163739/000112760213023484/xslF345X03/form4.xml & 7,000 shares @ $14.78 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163739/000112760213023589/xslF345X03/form4.xml
INTERESTING FUNDAMENTALS - FA: Nabors trades w/ a fPE: 12x vs fEPSe Growth: +48%, Price/Sales Ratio: 0.68, Price/Book: 0.75, manageable debt & a yield, albeit undersized, of 1%.
|Index||S&P 500||P/E||14.02||EPS (ttm)||1.06||Insider Own||1.20%||Shs Outstand||294.75M||Perf Week||-2.56%|
|Market Cap||4.38B||Forward P/E||12.06||EPS next Y||1.23||Insider Trans||-||Shs Float||287.44M||Perf Month||-4.99%|
|Income||313.00M||PEG||1.65||EPS next Q||0.19||Inst Own||83.90%||Short Float||3.41%||Perf Quarter||1.16%|
|Sales||6.47B||P/S||0.68||EPS this Y||-29.90%||Inst Trans||0.51%||Short Ratio||2.41||Perf Half Y||-9.72%|
|Book/sh||20.09||P/B||0.74||EPS next Y||48.43%||ROA||1.60%||Target Price||17.43||Perf Year||11.48%|
|Cash/sh||2.06||P/C||7.20||EPS next 5Y||8.50%||ROE||3.30%||52W Range||12.69 – 18.15||Perf YTD||3.34%|
|Dividend||0.16||P/FCF||-||EPS past 5Y||-21.70%||ROI||2.30%||52W High||-18.12%||Beta||2.14|
|Dividend %||1.08%||Quick Ratio||2.50||Sales past 5Y||7.20%||Gross Margin||35.10%||52W Low||17.08%||ATR||0.44|
|Employees||24500||Current Ratio||2.50||Sales Q/Q||-6.20%||Oper. Margin||10.00%||RSI (14)||40.54||Volatility||2.48% 2.70%|
|Optionable||Yes||Debt/Eq||0.69||EPS Q/Q||123.50%||Profit Margin||3.00%||Rel Volume||1.35||Prev Close||14.93|
|Shortable||Yes||LT Debt/Eq||0.69||Earnings||Jul 23 AMC||Payout||11.80%||Avg Volume||4.07M||Price||14.86|
THE DAILY FOR SCALPERS - TA: Scalp Traders can feast off the daily chart, trading againsts well defined levels, L: or SS: side. Clearly, we’d favor the L: side in NBR.
SCALPER TRADE PLAN: Seems pretty clear that 14.50 is a key SUP/RES area & this name has spent the entirety of FY13 above 14.20. Scales L: between 13.75 & 14.75, targeting a cost basis near the FY13 lows @ 14.20 appear prudent. Although the 52 week low sits @ $12.69, a Scalper Stop likely rests -5% or @ $13.50 (technical no man’s land). Truth told, be smart & use a wider -8.5% stop, which puts you out of the trade on a break & close below $13. Should NBR breach $14, a “wick / touch” of $13.50 isn’t out of the question, however, a cascade through $13 lower is highly unlikely w/ the fundamentals & forecast here. As for targets, be mindful of the overhead confluence of the 20SMA, 200SMA & a two month downtrend @ 15.25 but expect, following a pause there, acceleration to @ $15.90 where the 50SMA currently sits. Through $16 yields $16.80 – $17, a level at which NBR has traded at in only 10 days of the last year. Should the broad market & the O+G sector cooperate, expect that if the name can get through $17.75 – on VOLUME – it sends this stock off to the races, target $20.
THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART FOR SWING PLAYERS – TA: These two charts may offer a clearer view as to why Swing Traders should consider L: NBR.
SWING PLAYER TRADE PLAN: Save for 6 months in 2009, NBR has spent the past 10+ years at $12/share or higher & with a robust forward forecast in hand & the litany of US based Oil & Gas finds – many of which NBR is participating in – consider Swing L: scales 12.25 – 14.75 and STOP on a break & monthly close < $10. The longer term view seems to suggest that $12.50 is a more than adequate “floor” & a nice, 12 month base has been built in the $12.75 – $15 window, staging – in our opinion – for higher prices. Energy building (pun intended) over the past year, NBR has a date w/ $17.50+ & once that nearest term hurdle is hopped over, it’s smooth sailing to $20.50+ for our Bermuda based friend. Give this name 18 months & you get $26.25+ & if you have 3 years enjoy the return trip toward $35 (let’s be specific & target $32.20+) for a cool Reward: 150%+ vs untested Risk: -30%, a Ratio of +5 : -1 (no one’s going broke runnin’ those type trades). Enjoy!